Well yesterday was a very disappointing day as JV don’t run a step and didn’t even hit the board for us. Two races before that was a brutal loss on Regal Ransom on the wire at a huge price, the place and show bets were surprising large. The next race Banned won easily and we caught the exotics in that one, but the overall day was just plain demoralizing when JV doesn’t run a step. Well were back today with a great betting card and I’m not going to let me head hand low any longer. In this game you are only one race from a big score and there are plenty chances for that today. You won’t see chalk all day long today I can guarantee that!!!!!!!!

Race 1

Starter Allowance @ 1 Mile Surface Dirt

They start the card with basically a claiming race and there are as many as 4-5 win contenders in this one. I’m caught between the #3 and #4 in this one. The #3 broke his maiden against elders at the Stream, they raised him up to a OC 50K from a maiden 35K, was just too big of a jump out of maidens. The #4 has strictly raced on the weeds and now hits the dirt for the first time in his career and has a nice work over the CH strip for the event. The local trainers want to win on Derby Day more than the shippers. Bobby Barnett would love to start the day off winning race #1 as this is his only starter of the day. By my numbers and his works per my clocker I’m starting my day off with the local at a solid price.

BS-FB - #4 – Uncle Pink – WPS


4 over 1-2-3-5-6 - In exacta and tri.

Race 2

Allowance @ 1 1/6 Surface Dirt

Well the connections of blame have another runner today that is probably dead fit as was Might (BS) filly yesterday that won impressive. Bind will be odds on and I have seen this one run both his starts in person and was the most impressive in his first trip over the FG course and then came back as most maiden do and run a dull second to Prime Cut, who came out of that win and ran in a stakes at Keeneland and finished off the board. I’m not going to back this young colt in this race as there are some SALTY older colts in this race. Worldly #4 is a very tough colt that had promise last year and is 4-4 ITM over this strip, lost a tough one last year over this strip to Coliezo and has worked well coming into this race off the bench.

BS - #2 – Bind – BIG BUZZ HORSE

FB - #4 – Worldly – WP


4 over 2-3-5-6-8 – In exacta and tri.

Race 3

Maiden Special Weight @ 6F Surface Dirt

Another great betting race as we have a field of ten solid maiden in this event. I can tell you one thing the ml favorite in Santo Gato is just horrible, I have seen this colt run many times at the FG and he is just a money burner and how they can make him the favorite is beyond me this colt has ran 8 times and has only finished in the money 2 times and is just a colt that doesn’t want to win and is just flat down the lane when the real running starts for the money. The BS horse is Baffert’s first time starter, they say his work back at SA on the 20th of April was AWESOME and came back with a nice work over this strip from the gate. He will most likely be the post time favorite and that tells you to PAY ATTENTION to this colt. The colt I like in this one is #2 but has the big disadvantage of breaking from the rail and the rail was dead yesterday. The outside horses ruled the card yesterday on the dirt as you can see back in the charts. The better part of the track was the middle and out. Pay Attention to that day as the race go and make adjustments.

BS - #4 – CJ Russell – BIG BUZZ HORSE – Calling him a MONSTER

FB - #2 – Golden Triumph – WPS


2 over 3-4-6-8-9-10 – Exacta, Tri, and Super

Race 4

Allowance Optional Claiming @ 1 1/16 Surface Turf

This is a great weeds race and we have a solid field of ten in here. I can make a case for two in this one and there is enough speed in this one for the mid pack runners as well as the closers to come running at the end. I’m going with the ml favorite in this one as I think this one is about to string together a few wins.

BS - #2 – War Tigress

FB - #8 – Snow Top Mountain – W/P


8 over 1-2-3-4-7-9-10 – Exacta and Tri – Reverse in 2nd hole also.

Race 5

Allowance Optional Claiming @ 7F Surface Dirt

They just keep getting better and better with this race card. Another one that is wide open and has up to 5 win contenders in this event. The BS horse is #6 Lee Chapel and I’m looking to back #4 Depeche Chat as he has been running against much tougher, he broke his maiden over AAA at this track, then was laid up for two months and when he came back to face a buzz saw in Manicero and that won has continued to keep winning and placing in stakes races. The he just lost to Close It Out that came back to win a stakes on closing day at the Stream.

BS - #6 – Lee Chapel

FB - #4 – Depeche Chat – WPS


4 over 1-2-3-5-6-9 – Exacta and Tri – Reverse in 2nd hole also.

Race 6

The Twin Spires Turf Sprint – G3 @ 5F Surface Turf

Well we are here the first stakes race of many and this is a two horse race IMO. The #2 Regally Ready and #8 Bridgetown, these are the two best turf sprinters out there right now, I know the defending champ is in the race and I just think he is starting to tail off his form now. I really think this is an easy exacta box and these two will battle down the line and anyone of them can win this race. I’m going to back #2 Regally Ready as he has a win over this strip by almost 8 lengths and you just don’t see that type of margin of victory in 5F weed races. He has reeled off 3 straight coming down the SA hill and those were at 6 ½ and now he is cutting back to 5F FLAT, can you say BYE BYE BIRDIE!!!

BS - #8 – Bridgetown – Working like a beast coming into this one.

FB - #2 Regally Ready – WPS


2 over 3-4-5-6-7-8 – Exacta and Tri – Reverse in 2nd hole also.

Super - 2 over 3-5-7-8 over 3-5-7-8 over 3-4-5-6-7-8 – Reverse in 2nd hole also.

Race 7

The Humana Distaff – G1 @ 7F Surface Dirt

This is one tough race and I’m playing the longest shot on the morning line. That is #1 Sassy Image as this filly has been blistering this track in the AM and has a great record over this strip. This race sets up for her and I got off one just like this yesterday that won easily and didn’t have the numbers at all but was a easy winner down the lane and she took a ton of money at the windows. Going with a local in this one.

BS - #3 – Evening Jewel

FB - #1 – Sassy Image – WPS


Exacta – 1 over all – Reverse in 2nd hole also.

Tri – 1 over all – Reverse in 2nd hole also.

Super – 1 over 3-4-7 over 3-4-7 over all – Reverse in 2nd hole also.

Race 8

The Churchill Distaff Turf Mile – G2 @ 1 Mile Surface Turf

Another very tough race, but I have my mind made up on this one when I saw the entries on Wednesday and that is #2 Upperline. I was there for her last two races over the FG weeds course and her last race was nothing but pure brilliance. Her conditioner Mike Stidham knows what to do with good hoses and he put her to rest for 6 weeks and she has worked quit well over that time. She has a series of four works over the Keeneland poly she will be fit enough and is in the hands of one good turf rider in Rosie Napravnik and she will time this one perfect today down the lane and she has drawn the garden spot for this event today.

FB-BS - #2 Upperline – WPS


2 over 1-6-7-8-9-11 – Exacta and Tri – Reverse in 2nd hole also.

Super – 2 over 1-6-7-8 over 1-6-7-8 over 1-6-7-8-9-11 – Reverse in 2nd hole also.

Race 9

The Churchill Downs – G2 @ 7F Surface Dirt

You are looking at the upcoming BC Sprint for 2011 at CH. There are about 5-6 horses in this race that will be back in October for the BC Sprint if they stay sound. This is one hell of a race and there are many in here you can make a stand for, but I have circled the one I think is sitting on another big effort and he is back on a surface he loves. That is the Captain and it’s not Capt. Candyman Can but Captain Cherokee. Regal Ransom run yesterday makes the Candyman look real tough off his effort yesterday. There is so much speed signed up for this race, that we will sit a garden spot and run right past them all down the lane on a track you can close into not like that Freeway in Cali.

BS - #2 – Smiling Tiger – Sitting on a BIG ONE

FB - #4 – Captain Cherokee – WPS


4 over 1-2-3-6-10-11-12 – Exacta and Tri – Reverse in 2nd hole.

Super – 4 over 2-3-6-10 over 2-3-6-10 over 1-2-3-6-10-11-12

Race 10

The Woodford Reserve Turf Classic – G1 @ 1 1/8 Surface Turf

What a weak bunch for a grade one and there is no way in hell I will settle on a short price horse in this one. All I can say is he is back for this race and the last time he won a race was over this strip and with the same pilot. I’m talking about Battle of Hastings and he has Joel Rosario and is listed at 12-1 ml and he hasn’t been that price in over 12 starts that are listed in the DRF. He has been beaten by 6 of todays runners over the past 3 races and today is the day is turns the tide on all as he will finally get his Grade One win.

BS – #8 - Doubles Partner – Two for Two over the weeds at CH

FB - #13 – Battle of Hastings – WPS


13 over 3-4-5-6-7-8-9-11-12 – Exacta and Tri – Reverse in 2nd hole.

Super – 13 over 4-6-7-8 over 4-6-7-8 over 3-4-5-6-7-8-9-11-12

Race 11

The 137th Running of The Kentucky Derby – G1 @ 1 ¼ Surface Dirt

Well the one we all have been waiting for all year long. What a race this is going to be and I cannot wait to see the story line that comes from this race. This is the most wide open race I can ever remember for a Kentucky Derby. You can ask ten people and they all have different horses and make cases for them. I loved AAA in this one as the draw took all the wind out of me and just scrambled my mind all together. This race to me looks like a bunch of slow horses and the early betting on Calvin Borail is NUTS. I know it’s Calvin and the Kentucky Derby but this horse is just plain slow. After having a few days to clear my mind on the post position draw I just keep coming back to AAA and I know the rail is horrible place to be as it was all day yesterday. Look at the Oaks the 12/13 run 1-2. There really isn’t that much speed in this race and I think Soldat is going to get a great trip as he will flank the other speed horses and I think he will be sitting about 4th or 5th on the turn and if he has the horse will finish in the money. I’m real high on Animal Kingdom and he is becoming the buzz horse on the BS, he picks up a big rider in JR. Karma might be working for JR this year as he lost Big E last year and rode Devil May Care and this year he loses Uncle Mo and now gets a true distance horse for a great trainer and connections (KARMA BABY), then you come to Mr. Bobby B, what can you say about this guy (WINNING), Charlie Sheen needs to jump on the Baffert bandwagon. Midnight Interlude is sitting on a peak effort and is one of the colts in here that ran 12 second splits in this last out. Then I come to Nehro who I think is a complete toss the way he has worked over this track and his 3 race in 6 weeks, he seems to have peaked in my interest. Then what about the Derby favorite, Dialed In just a pure grinder and has an ugly motion about him galloping and running. Has the trainer that knows how to peak them for this race. Can he win (YES), do I like him (No). Well we cannot pick them all and we all want to have the derby winner so here is how I suggest to play this year Running for the Roses.

#1 - Archarcharch – WPS – Just has trained to well over this track his speed numbers are there and he ran 12’s in the Ark Derby. Jink Fires and family will be smiling in the winners circle today and the only reason we got this price is the #1 hole.

#17 – Soldat – He should get the trip flanking the speed that will start to backup and has the breeding to keep going and has only ran one bad race this year and that was down on the rail at the Stream, I say draw a line through that one and he is pretty in the form.

#16 – Animal Kingdom – I loved his last race and this is one serious colt with great connections. They don’t run a horse just to run. This one can run all day and will make his presence felt in a big manner today and I can see Jr and Graham Motion getting their pictures taken.

#15 – Midnight Interlude – Baffert real quiet on this colt chances and he doesn’t put them in the gate just to say I have a horse in the Ky Derby. This colt is sitting on a big effort and if Mythical Pegasus runs big on the undercard (PAY ATTENTION) as they were working head to head as I sent earlier. This is the other colt that ran 12’s in his last race and was jostled down the lance on several occasion and it didn’t bother him one bit.

#14 – Shackleford - You have to pay attention to Dale Romans when he is this cocky on a colt. He will be part of the pace and I think will hang on for a big piece of this race. His odds are inflated by Romans comments and when a trainer that is passive is smiling and laughing when hearing comments on his colt you better listen.

#8 – Dialed In – Zito is beaming with confidence and that means a lot to me and I will listen to a trainer of his kind. This colt will be coming and the Frogman wants this in a big manner. He should fill out a tri or super.



#1 – Archarcharch – WPS

#16 – Animal Kingdom – Win Bet Only at 15-1 or more!!!!!

Good Luck!


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